| The January USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report provided more revisions to the U.S. corn balance sheet. Revisions to USDA domestic corn estimates have been mostly positive for corn prices since the USDA's September WASDE projections. This month's revisions propelled March corn futures 20 ½ cents higher in two trading days, from $4.56 to $4.76 ½. Since the September WASDE, March corn futures have increased from $4.04 ¾ to $4.76 ½, a $0.71 ¾ increase. Was the price increase justified based on the revised information? Yes. Table 1 compares the USDA WASDE estimates in September to January for corn. The two primary changes were a decrease in the national average yield of 4.3 bu/acre (183.6 to 179.3 bu/acre), a 2.3% decrease, and an increase in exports of 150 million bushels (2.3 to 2.45 billion), a 6.5% increase. Driven by these two adjustments, projected 2024/25 marketing year ending stocks in the United States decreased 517 million bushels, from 2.057 billion to 1.54 billion bushels. A 25.1% decline in ending stocks, combined with the change in use, resulted in a decline in stocks-to-use from 13.7% to 10.2%. Small percentage adjustments to supply and demand can result in relatively large changes in stocks-to-use and the marketing year average price. Table 1. September and January USDA WASDE Projections for Corn for the 2024/2025 Marketing Year |
